TFN Country Alert

The U.N. Battle of the Year: Guatemala vs. Venezuela
by Ian Cooper, Editor, Extreme Volatility Speculator/Early Alert Trader, Gressor
October 17, 2006

The fiercest political impasse of the last 30 years has broken out on the floor of the U.N. Security Council, forging a popularity contest between the United States’ George W. Bush and Hugo Chavez, who now blames us for starting a “whole dirty war operation” to prevent his country from obtaining a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.  Even if it were true, Chavez’s “Bush is the devil” comments aren’t likely to draw any U.S. support for seating Venezuela.

The last time a U.N. Security Council game of musical chairs broke out was 1979, Cuba vs. Colombia.  Over three months, 154 votes were held… and deadlocked until Mexico won as an alternative pick.  Cuba did, however, run in 1980 and lost to Panama.  It wasn’t until 1990 and 1991 that Cuba emerged the victor of musical U.N. chairs. 

This time around, Venezuela and Guatemala were deadlocked on Monday after 10 grueling rounds of voting failed to produce a winner.  According to Forbes, “The voting pattern fluctuated through the day. In the early rounds, Guatemala got 116 votes and Venezuela just 70. Then, in the sixth round of voting, they tied at 93 each. On the last vote, Guatemala led again, with 110 to Venezuela’s 77. That was still short of the 125 needed to win.”

Victory for Chavez could be detrimental to the United States’ fight over Iran and North Korea.  Worse yet, according to the Miami Herald, “The presidency of the council is rotated among members for a one-month period, meaning that Venezuela could chair the body at least once during its term, serving as its representative and influencing its agenda.”

Playing musical chairs with Guatemala for a reserved Latin America seat on the Security Council, Venezuela must have 128 votes in favor, or two-thirds of the general assembly members. So far, Venezuela does have support from the Caribbean Community, the Arab League, the African Union, China and Russia, according to reports.

A deadlock could end with a compromise candidate such as Uruguay, Costa Rica, Mexico or Chile.

For more from Ian and the Gressor team, access this special investment report.

Copyright 2006, The Taipan Group, LLC, Taipan Financial News, Early Alert Trader, Gressor, and Dynamic Market Alert,
808 St. Paul St., Baltimore, MD 21202
All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or placed on any electronic medium without written permission from the publisher. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed.