Investing in Nickel: Still Bullish...
By Ian L. Cooper
Commodities have retaken the headlines, with red-hot nickel nailing new highs. In fact, commodities are so hot that the Rogers International Commodity Index has already tacked on about 20% in value this year alone. But what’s with nickel?
Nickel has been scalding hot (up 45% in price), more than any other London Metal Exchange-traded metal. It’s now four times the price of copper and stands as the most profitable of all metals to mine, all while nickel inventories trade at lows. But that run is far from over. Not as long as nickel inventories are expected to remain tight up to 2010; not while mining companies have problems expanding capacity to meet demand from
China’s stainless steel makers; and not as long as China’s nickel demand is expected to rise 33% by 2011 from 2006’s 18% demand.
You see, nickel is a vital ingredient in stainless steel. In fact, two-thirds of the world’s nickel supply is used in stainless steel production. Stainless steel isn’t just used for high-end kitchen appliances and car parts. It’s also crucial to natural gas and oil pipeline builders because it doesn’t corrode. And wouldn’t you know it… China has recently earned the distinction of the world’s largest stainless steel producer.
In 2006, China produced over 5 million tons of stainless steel. That was a 60%, or 3 million ton, increase over its 2005 totals. That growth more than quadrupled the world average of 14%. It’s a fact -- China is fueling demand for nickel in a way that we’ve never experienced. And the smart money is going to follow this trend as long as it continues, which is for the foreseeable future.
More of a reason to own nickel-related stocks is that low supply levels are expected to keep the market “tight” right up to 2010 with this year’s average prices already forecast to soar another 34%. In fact, according to MarketWatch.com, “Consumption growth will slow to 2.9% in 2007, down from 11.9% last year but expected to rebound again to 7.4% in 2008.”
The smart bet on the commodity super cycle is nickel. Keep an eye on it.